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Impact of Store Closures
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How can EarnestQuery be helpful with store closures?
 

1. Track the performance of cities with at least one closure against the rest of the country during and after liquidation sales (Chart 1).

2. Slice sales by channel (in-store, online or store card) to determine if the closure of physical stores shifts spending to online (Charts 2, 3).

3. Track competitive situations in markets with at least one store closure to understand if competitors are benefiting.

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April 2018

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Example: Macy's Store Closures


 

On January 4th, 2018, Macy’s announced that it would close seven store locations, on top of four other previously announced closures (part of a plan announced in August 2016 to close 100 stores nationwide, ~15% of store base)*. Liquidation sales began on January 8th and continued for eight to twelve weeks.
 

We looked into closure cities (some of which are multi-store markets) to analyze the impact of liquidation sales*:

  • Although sales in cities with at least one closure accelerated ~6 pts more than the rest of the country from December to February, those markets make up less than 7.5% of all of Macy’s sales
    (Chart 1).

     

  • In-store sales in cities with at least one closure accelerated from December to January by ~5pts more than the rest of the country. A slow February, however, could imply that the benefit from sales in physical stores was short lived (Chart 2).
     

  • Interestingly, within closure cities, February online sales accelerated more than the rest of the country, which – if the trend persists - could be a ray of hope for Macy’s. We will be monitoring this online/in-store dynamic throughout the quarter (Chart 3).

 

*Macy's locations with store closures are located in California, Indiana, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont.

Closure cities accelerated ~6pts more than the rest of the country from December to February.

In-store sales in closure cities accelerated by ~5pts more than the rest of the country from December to January but slowed down in February.

Online sales acceleration could mean that Macy's is successfully retaining customers in markets with store closures.